Live Interpretation Engine for Traders

You don't know what your results actually mean.

RiskWise recalibrates your risk, edge, and uncertainty with every trade — so you stop reacting to noise and start seeing the structure underneath.

Free to start · Full access $19/mo
riskwise-app.netlify.app
RiskWise — Full Instrument
Built on
Monte Carlo Simulation
Probability & Statistics
No AI · No opinions · Just math
Built by a trader, for traders

Five lenses into your trading reality.

Each one answers a question your results can't answer on their own — and recalibrates with every trade you log.

Risk Sensitivity

How much risk can your edge actually support?

There's a precise threshold where your edge breaks — where survival probability falls off a cliff. Most traders cross it without ever knowing it existed.

SURVIVAL BY RISK LEVEL
THRESHOLD
Edge supports up to 2.0% risk
Drawdown

Is your drawdown normal — or a warning sign?

Most traders panic at the wrong time. RiskWise tells you whether your current drawdown is expected for your edge — or something you should actually worry about.

YOUR DRAWDOWN VS SIMULATED PATHS
you
0%NormalCaution-30%
96%
of paths hit this deep or worse
This drawdown is normal.
Streak

Should you be worried about this losing streak?

Probably not. At your win rate, a streak like this was always going to happen. The math tells you exactly how likely it was.

YOUR LAST 30 TRADES
47%
chance of this streak happening
Expected
Path

Where does your edge actually lead?

Not a prediction. A probability-weighted projection of where your current data points — best case, median, and worst case over your next 50 trades.

MONTE CARLO · 50 TRADE HORIZON
Best
+28.4%
Median
+12.4%
Worst
-8.1%
Edge

Do you actually have an edge — or is it just variance?

The hardest question in trading. RiskWise runs the statistical tests and tells you how confident the math is that your results are real.

EDGE CONFIDENCE
RandomUnclearConfirmed
62%
confidence
Could still be random

You've felt this before.

You hit a losing streak. And suddenly nothing makes sense anymore.

You change something that didn't need changing.

You don't know if your strategy is failing — or if this is just part of the process.

You hesitate when you should act. You act when you should wait.

You thought it was discipline.

It's not.

It's interpretation.

Monte Carlo Simulation Framework

The same mathematical framework used by quantitative trading firms to model uncertainty — applied to your actual trades, recalculated with every entry.

Built by a trader who spent 4 years solving the same problem.

One moment changes everything.

Your losses don't mean you're wrong.

Your drawdown doesn't mean your strategy is broken.

Your edge hasn't failed — you just didn't understand it yet.

That's when trading starts to make sense.

But clarity isn't permanent. Your data changes with every trade. Without a live reference, you're back to guessing by next week.

Uncertainty doesn't pause between sessions.

Your interpretation shouldn't either.

Free to start · Full access $19/mo
RiskWise is built for desktop.

The three-panel instrument needs a wider screen to display diagnostics, your trading console, and Monte Carlo projections side by side.

Open this page on a laptop or desktop to get started.
Paused
Trade Log
Clear All
February 2026
Recent Trades
Log your first trade to start calibrating your range.
Your current state
Equity +$0
0% Drawdown
Win Rate
Avg Risk
Log your last trade
Set your current balance to start logging trades →
Position Size Calculator
ticks
%
$200
DCGP
Drawdown Diagnostics What your current drawdown means and what recovery looks like.
0% 30%
0%
Current Drawdown
$0 from peak
0%
Max DD
Avg Recovery Time
0
Trades in DD
Session Heatmap
Red cells are costing you money
Session Heatmap
Log trades across different days to see patterns.
0 trades logged
Risk Engine
Monte Carlo simulation of your edge. Recalibrates with every trade.
Win %
Avg R
Risk %
Current DD
How much risk can your edge support?
of paths stay above your drawdown threshold
Survival probability vs risk per trade
Risk Engine
Log 10+ trades to activate the Risk Engine.
0 of 10 trades
Is this drawdown normal?
of simulated paths hit a drawdown this deep or worse
0% 30% You typical worst
Drawdown Analysis
10 trades needed to interpret your drawdown.
0 of 10 trades
Where You Stand
You're down
Typical worst drawdown at this risk
Your drawdown threshold
Is this streak normal?
0 of 10 trades
Streak Analysis
10 trades needed to interpret your streaks.
At Your Win Rate
Win rate
Expected longest losing streak
Expected longest winning streak
Trades logged
Where does this go from here?
median outcome over next 50 trades
Path Projection
10 trades needed to project where your edge leads.
0 of 10 trades
Outcome Range
Best case (top 10%)
Median outcome
Worst case (bottom 10%)
Chance of new equity high
🔮
Path projection is a Pro feature.
See where your edge leads — probability-weighted outcomes based on your actual data.
Is this edge statistically real?
confidence level
0% 50% 90% 95%+
Edge Analysis
10 trades needed to analyze your edge.
0 of 10 trades
True Win Rate Range (95% CI)
Your true win rate is somewhere in this range.
Statistical Tests
P-value (expectancy vs zero)
Trades logged
What This Means
Log trades to see sample size analysis.
🎯
Edge analysis is a Pro feature.
Find out whether your results reflect a real edge — or just variance.
How It Works
Full access is ready when you are.
Your trades are building real data. Full access turns the interpretation engine on — survival analysis, drawdown context, streak probability, edge confidence, and projected paths. All recalibrating with every trade.
Full interpretation engine — all 5 modes
Unlimited CSV imports
Continuous recalibration with every trade
Cancel anytime · No lock-in
How It Works
The Problem

Most trading journals give you accounting — win rate, profit factor, total P&L.

But those are backward-looking report cards. They tell you what happened, not why or when or under what conditions.

You can feel patterns in your trading — certain times feel harder, certain days feel worse — but you can't make it objective.

That gap between feeling and knowing is where edge gets lost.

The Solution

RiskWise surfaces the patterns you can't see yourself.

Session performance heatmaps show exactly when you're bleeding. Day-of-week analysis reveals which days to avoid. Probability simulations show the shape of your future if nothing changes.

No prescriptions. No "you should risk X%."

Just unusually good analytics that make the invisible visible — so you can decide what to do with the insight.

The Probability Space

RiskWise runs Monte Carlo simulations on your actual trade history to show you the probability space you're operating in.

Not "here's what you should risk" — but "here's what 500 possible futures look like if you keep trading the way you're trading."

If the mean is unfavorable, you'll see it. If ruin probability is creeping up, you'll know.

The math doesn't lie. It just shows you where you are.

FAQ
How many trades do I need?
The Monte Carlo runs with 10+ trades. More data gives more stable projections.
What CSV formats work?
TradingView strategy reports, NinjaTrader broker exports, or any CSV with a P&L column. Format is detected automatically.
How does the heatmap bucket trades?
By entry time, not exit time. This matches how session filters work in your trading platform.
Does this work for any market?
Yes. Market-agnostic — evaluates outcomes and account state, not price or setups.
Trade Log
All trades used by the interpretation engine. Delete any trade to recalculate.
Progression
January 15, 2026
3 trades